After 8 years of negotiations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) was finally successfully signed on the 15th. As a result of including substantial tariff reduction, trade and investment facilitation, economic and technical cooperation, policy coordination and other terms, RCEP is expected to significantly reduce regional transaction costs, smooth logistics and human flow, promote regional integration in East Asia, and bring a new round of growth to the world economy dividend.
According to calculations by relevant experts, RCEP will help strengthen East Asian cooperation in multiple fields and bring considerable wealth growth to the world. China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN are important cooperative partners. RCEP is likely to create a beneficial effect of multilateral cooperation back-feeding bilateral cooperation, and bilateral cooperation enriching multilateral cooperation. When combined with factors such as opening up and upgrading within the region, it has a significant dividend spillover effect and will attract more Many factors such as global capital and technology converge here.
Since the beginning of this year, under the complex external situation, China and ASEAN trade and investment have both achieved growth against the trend. In the first three quarters, China’s investment in ASEAN increased by 76.6%. Affected by factors such as China's strong economic recovery, China's supply chain cooperation with ASEAN, Japan and South Korea has not weakened, but has become closer.
Huang Yuchuan, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, an American think tank, analyzed that under the influence of the epidemic, Asia may have regionalization of supply chains, and the degree of Asian economies facing the West may decrease, and the degree of ties between them may increase.
As the epidemic is raging around the world, regional cooperation in East Asia is consolidating its position as a safe haven for investment in the region. In recent years, MSCI, FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones, Bloomberg Barclays, JPMorgan Chase and other international index institutions have accelerated their inclusion in East Asian stocks and bonds such as China. This year, the return rate of Asian fixed-income funds is higher than that of global fixed-income funds, prompting investors to increase the proportion of East Asian assets. The positive factors of RCEP will likely accelerate the eastward shift of the global investment center.
In addition to direct incremental dividends, the impact of RCEP on the global pattern and development model should also not be underestimated. The economic development of the world today is facing new challenges. On the one hand, unfavorable factors such as the epidemic and protectionism have severely impacted the global supply chain and damaged the foundation of multilateral cooperation. The international community is eager to create new growth and achieve new development through new multilateral cooperation methods; on the other hand, the new round of scientific and technological revolution has not yet achieved significant For breakthroughs, the world economy lacks new growth points and urgently needs to add new kinetic energy.
RCEP is expected to provide solutions for world economic growth: RCEP will lead the mainstream of the era of win-win cooperation with multilateralism, and bring new hope to the world economy under the gloom of the epidemic. The concepts of green sharing and inclusive growth advocated by RCEP are expected to open up a new paradigm of fairer and more sustainable regional cooperation; at the same time, RCEP is expected to open up new paths for innovation and optimization of regional resource allocation through cooperation models, thereby enhancing technological and business model innovation .